Global Chilling Projection - Results

We generated global winter chill for two past (1975 and 2000) and 18 future scenarios [mid and end 21st century; 3 Global Climate Models (GCMs: MIROC3.2 (medres), UKMO-HadCM3 and CSIRO-Mk3.0); 3 greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) scenarios (B1 - global curbing of emissions over the 21st century; A1B - emissions leveling off at mid 21st century; and A2 - continually increasing rate of greenhouse gas emissions)]] and also calculated the differences in averaged projections compare with the different time frames. To view results from different scenarios, select from the dropdown list and zoom to your location of interest. You can also download the raster files for a more detailed examination. Please note that all maps show Safe Winter Chill (see Materials and Methods), the amount of chilling that is exceeded in the given scenario year with a 90% probability.

Please refer to this dataset as:
Luedeling E, Girvetz EH, Semenov MA and Brown PH. Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees. PloS ONE 6 (5), e20155.
The article is accessible here:

Show (* Erdas imagine format, 109M)
Chill Portions:
Change of Chill Portions:

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