California Chilling - Results

We generated winter chill in California for two past (1950 and 2000) and 18 future scenarios [mid and end 21st century; 3 Global Climate Models (GCMs: MIROC3.2 (medres), UKMO-HadCM3 and CSIRO-Mk3.0); 3 greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) scenarios (B1 - global curbing of emissions over the 21st century; A1B - emissions leveling off at mid 21st century; and A2 - continually increasing rate of greenhouse gas emissions)] and also calculated the differences in averaged projections compare with the different time frames. To view results from different scenarios, select from the dropdown list and zoom to your location of interest. You can also download the raster files for a more detailed examination. Please note that all maps show Safe Winter Chill (see Materials and Methods), the amount of chilling that is exceeded in the given scenario year with a 90% probability.

Please refer to this dataset as: Luedeling E, Zhang M and Girvetz EH, 2009. Climatic changes lead to declining winter chill for fruit and nut trees in California during 1950-2099. PloS ONE 4 (7), e6166.
The article is accessible here:

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